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Dave Collum's 2024 Year In Review: 5 Catastrophic Predictions And The End Of The 40-Year Bull Market

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Every year, the release of Professor Dave Collum's annual "Year in Review" essay sends shockwaves through the financial and contrarian commentary communities, and the latest iteration, titled "2024 Year in Review: What Is a Fact?", is no exception. As of December 2025, Collum's comprehensive analysis remains the most current and definitive deep dive into the complex web of finance, geopolitics, and cultural decay that he sees defining the modern era.

This year’s review, a massive, multi-part document, moves beyond simple economic forecasting to challenge the very foundation of societal narratives, questioning the nature of truth in an age of information overload. It serves as a stark warning to investors and citizens alike, suggesting that the "long bull market" is over and that a fundamental reckoning—both financial and cultural—is rapidly approaching.

Professor Dave Collum: Biography and Intellectual Profile

Dave Collum is a unique figure in the world of financial and political commentary, lending a rare academic gravitas to his contrarian views. His profile is a blend of hard science and outspoken economic analysis, making his annual review a highly anticipated event.

  • Full Name: David J. Collum (often referred to as Dave Collum)
  • Primary Profession: Miller Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University.
  • Academic Career: He has been a faculty member at Cornell University since 1980, serving as Director of Undergraduate Studies and Director of Graduate Studies in Chemistry.
  • Commentary Focus: Collum is widely known for his outspoken, often provocative, views on financial markets, public policy, geopolitics, and global trends.
  • Noteworthy Prediction: He is credited by some for predicting the 2008 financial crisis, which cemented his reputation as a serious, albeit unorthodox, economic commentator.
  • Annual Publication: His "Year in Review" essay, published near the end of the calendar year, is a monumental work that synthesizes a vast array of data and opinion across multiple disciplines.

Collum's background as a scientist—a field based on empirical evidence—informs his skeptical approach to mainstream economic and political narratives, which is a central theme in his latest review.

The Looming Financial Disaster: The End of the 40-Year Bull Market

The core of the 2024 review’s financial section is a dire warning that the global economy is at a critical inflection point. Collum argues that the easy money policies, quantitative easing, and ballooning debt of the past four decades have created a financial bubble that is now facing an inevitable, catastrophic correction.

Collum presents a compelling case for the end of a 40-year bull market, suggesting that the long-term trend of rising asset prices is set to reverse dramatically, a shift that he believes will "rip the souls" out of investors.

Five Key Financial Themes from the 2024 Review

  1. Catastrophic Market Correction: Collum warns of a potential financial disaster and a catastrophic market correction that will dwarf previous downturns due to the unprecedented level of global debt and financial engineering.
  2. Inflation as a Permanent Feature: He challenges the "transitory" narrative around inflation, suggesting that the structural issues in the economy—driven by government spending and monetary policy—mean high inflation will persist, eroding the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
  3. Stock Valuations are Untenable: The review dedicates significant space to dissecting stock valuations, concluding that many markets, particularly in the US, are priced for perfection and bear little relation to underlying economic reality.
  4. The Federal Reserve’s Dilemma: Collum critiques the Federal Reserve’s policy choices, arguing that they are trapped between fighting inflation and preventing a sovereign debt crisis, a no-win scenario that will inevitably lead to a major financial system failure.
  5. Advocacy for Real Assets: In a world of financial instability, Collum stresses the importance of moving capital into tangible, real assets as a defense against monetary debasement.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: The World Reserve Currency Debate

A perennial topic in Collum's review is the role of alternative assets, specifically gold and Bitcoin, as stores of value outside the traditional financial system. His position is nuanced, reflecting his skepticism toward centralized authority and his focus on historical precedent.

Gold: The High-Conviction Bet

Collum is a high-conviction advocate for gold investments. He sees gold as the ultimate safe haven and a hedge against the collapse of fiat currencies.

  • Reserve Currency Forecast: He has stated his belief that gold could become the world's reserve currency within the next decade, a prediction rooted in the historical role of gold as a stable, non-sovereign monetary asset.
  • 40-Year Correction: Collum suggests that the current environment marks the beginning of a 40-year correction in both price and attitude, which will favor gold and other hard assets over paper wealth.

Bitcoin: The Agnostic View

While acknowledging the potential of decentralized digital currencies, Collum maintains a position of "Bitcoin agnostic."

  • Digital Authoritarianism: He raises concerns about the state's potential to stop or regulate cryptocurrencies, suggesting that the rise of the digital world also enables greater authoritarian control.
  • A Store of Value: He recognizes Bitcoin’s appeal as a digital store of value and a protest against central banks, but he remains cautious about its lack of a physical history and its vulnerability to government intervention.

"What Is a Fact?": Geopolitics, Conspiracy Theories, and Cultural Decay

The title of the 2024 review, "What Is a Fact?", signals Collum's deep dive into the non-economic spheres, which he views as inseparable from the financial outlook. This section of the review is where his contrarian streak is most evident, challenging mainstream media narratives across multiple contentious subjects.

The Erosion of Truth and Narrative Control

Collum dedicates a significant portion of the review to examining the concept of objective truth in a post-modern media environment. He argues that the control of information and the manipulation of public narratives are as significant a threat as financial instability.

  • Geopolitical Analysis: The review provides a sweeping analysis of global conflicts and geopolitical tensions, often presenting an alternative perspective to the one offered by Western governments and media.
  • Conspiracy Theories and the Mainstream: Collum explores the thin line between "conspiracy theory" and eventual truth, suggesting that a healthy skepticism of official stories is necessary for critical thought.
  • Cultural and Social Issues: The essay covers a wide array of cultural issues, including healthcare, energy policy, and societal trends, viewing them through the lens of institutional failure and elite mismanagement.

Ultimately, Dave Collum's 2024 Year in Review is more than just an annual forecast; it is a comprehensive, philosophical indictment of the current global system. His work provides a crucial, non-consensus viewpoint that encourages readers to look past the surface-level economic data and confront the deep-seated issues—financial, political, and cultural—that he believes are driving the world toward a fundamental, and potentially disastrous, reset.

dave collum year in review
dave collum year in review

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